How much time do new gTLDs need to reach maturity?

So a lot of people are saying that new gTLDs are a failure, they’re crashing and burning and .COM is and forever will be the only investment-grade domain extension. I disagree. Of course this is just my opinion, I don’t have any more information than you do, all I have is my observations and opinions.

Let me be a bit more clear by what I mean here.

First, I do think that most (i.e. more than 50%) of the new gTLDs will crash and burn. They are junk and no matter how many promos they run, people won’t keep renewing. That being said, I do think that a number of new gTLDs will survive the storm and go on to become accepted by normal people.

Some of the new gTLDs that I think will be around for the long haul are extensions like .APP and .CLUB. I don’t think it’s an incredibly long list, but I can tell you that it’s probably very unlikely that every new gTLD will fail, instead, I think most people just haven’t set realistic expectations around when a new gTLD will reach maturity.

I think that it will probably take 10 – 15 years for a new gTLD to reach maturity. What do I mean by maturity? I mean the amount of time it will take for consumers to really know about the extension and think logically about typing it into their browser.

So I think it’s a bit early to call out clear winners or losers, and definitely way to early to say that new gTLDs as a whole are a failure. At the same time I think it’s important to realize that a new gTLD can be a success without it being a good investment for Domainers. IMO, success means people actually using a new gTLD and the people that operate the new gTLD making good money and seeing their business continue to grow ever year.

That’s my two cents. What do you think? I want to hear from you – comment and let your voice be heard!

Morgan Linton

Morgan Linton